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Despite lingering cost-of-living pressures, GfK's headline consumer confidence index was stronger than anticipated in November, increasing to -24 from October's three-month low of -30. November's reading was above the -28 forecast in a Reuters poll of economists, and follows a sharp fall the month before. While British consumer price inflation fell significantly from a 41-year high of 11.1% just over a year ago to 4.6% in October, households are still grappling with the highest inflation rate among major rich economies. Official data published last week showed shoppers spent less in October as finances remain stretched. GfK conducted its poll of 2,000 people from Nov. 1 to Nov. 14.
Persons: GfK, Joe Staton, Andrew Bailey, Jeremy Hunt's, Staton, Suban Abdulla, David Milliken Organizations: Bank of England, Thomson
Morning Bid: Watching what the ECB giveth
  + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan. The forward-looking flash November PMIs due out globally should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin. Interest rate futures show the market is pricing in rate cuts by April and more aggressively so in June . Later on Thursday, Sweden's central bank will announce its latest policy decision in what is expected to be a very close call on whether to hike again. A Reuters poll showed 10 of 19 economists looked for a rise, while market pricing is leaning against a move.
Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, haven't, Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel's, Christine Lagarde's, Jeremy Hunt's, Van Haaren, ECB's Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, Francois Villeroy de, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Vidya, European Central, PMI, ECB, Reuters, Ubezpieczen SA, Virgin Money, Bank of France, Thomson Locations: Japan, United States, Britain, U.S, Sweden's
LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - British voters are set to suffer a "living standards disaster", despite Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt's new tax cut plan, because of the unprecedented fall in household incomes over the course of a parliamentary term, a think tank said on Thursday. The think tank said household disposable income per person was expected to fall 1.5% in 2024, when adjusted for Britain's still high rate of inflation. "But those challenges have also made things far more difficult for households: this is what a living standards disaster looks like." And that then means having to make some really difficult decisions when it comes to public spending but also raising revenue," he told Reuters. ($1 = 0.8025 pounds)Reporting by David Milliken and Bill Schomberg; Editing by Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jeremy Hunt's, Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Torsten Bell, Gareth Davies, Davies, David Milliken, Bill Schomberg, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Labour Party, Conservative, Reuters, Fiscal Studies, Treasury, Thomson
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUK's Autumn Statement laid bare how much economic damage Conservatives have caused: James MurrayJames Murray, the U.K.'s shadow financial secretary to the Treasury, discusses Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt's Autumn Statement and the country's economic outlook.
Persons: James Murray James Murray, Jeremy Hunt's Organizations: Treasury
LONDON (AP) — Britain's Conservative government will try to win favor with voters by cutting taxes but avoiding worsening inflation in a budget statement Wednesday, coming ahead of a likely national election next year that opinion polls suggest it will lose. Sunak said Monday that his government would “cut tax and reward hard work” but would “avoid doing anything that puts at risk our progress in controlling inflation." Political Cartoons View All 1262 Images“Now that inflation is halved and our growth is stronger — meaning revenues are higher — we can begin the next phase and turn our attention to cutting tax,” he said. The election must be held by January 2025, with speculation focusing on May or sometime next fall. Arguably, cutting personal taxes will make that “journey” more difficult because it would likely raise consumer spending, thereby ratcheting up price pressures.
Persons: , Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Jeremy Hunt's, , , ” Sunak, Liz Truss, Hunt, There's, hasn't, “ Hunt, Kallum Pickering, Andrew Bailey Organizations: Conservative, Conservative Party, Labour Party, Bank of, Bank of England Locations: Ukraine, Berenberg
UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/Handout via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - British finance minister Jeremy Hunt's big tax cut surprise could help the ruling Conservatives recover some favour among voters, but it threatens to store up budget problems for whichever party wins power after the expected 2024 election. Combined with his decision to make permanent the incentives for business investment announced earlier this year, Hunt's package of tax cuts would be worth about 20 billion pounds ($25 billion)a year by the 2028/29 tax year. "The giveaways announced today are funded by handing whoever wins the next election implausibly large spending cuts," Torsten Bell, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, said. Hunt is likely to remain under pressure from within his party to go further with more tax cuts in a final pre-election budget statement expected in March. "There's a material risk that those plans prove undeliverable and today's tax cuts will not prove to be sustainable," Johnson said.
Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Jessica Taylor, Handout, Jeremy Hunt's, Hunt, Liz, Rishi Sunak, Labour Party's, Rachel Reeves, Torsten Bell, Investec, David Jones, Paul Johnson, Johnson, William Schomberg, Elizabeth Piper, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, Wednesday, Labour, Conservative, Bank of England, Institute for Fiscal Studies, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, British
Morning Bid: AI buzzes but market shrugs at Nvidia beat
  + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly before the closing bell as the market takes a significant dip in New York, U.S., February 25, 2020. Remarkably, Nvidia managed to vault the sky-high bar for quarterly earnings, revenue and projections yet again in its latest update overnight. Bond volatility (.MOVE) has also fallen to two-month lows, while currency market 'vol' (.DBCVIX) is plumbing 20-month lows. CONCERN OVER HOME SALES, HOLIDAY SEASON SALESNews of a drop in U.S. existing home sales last month to a 13-year low was perhaps as important as the Fed minutes - as was warnings from more major U.S. retailers, this time Best Buy and Nordstrom, about sticky holiday season sales and the need for discounting. The dollar (.DXY) was a touch higher on Wednesday, meantime, with most overseas stock markets firmer too.
Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, thrall, OpenAI, Sam Altman, Changpeng Zhao, October's, Jeremy Hunt's, underperformed, Jeremy Hunt, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Nvidia, Federal, Nordstrom, University of Michigan, Bank of Canada, Treasury, Deere, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Gaza, China, yearend, York, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJeremy Hunt's pension fund reform plans are a 'game changer,' says venture capital firmDouglas Hansen-Luke, executive chairman of Future Planet Capital, discusses U.K. chancellor of the exchequer Jeremy Hunt's pension fund reform plan to help the country's startups.
Persons: Jeremy, Douglas Hansen, Luke Organizations: Future Planet Capital
Adding to signs of recovery in the economy, Wednesday's final reading of the S&P Global/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of 52.9 was below February's 53.5 but above the 50 mark denoting growth for a second month in a row. It was also a touch higher than a preliminary March reading of 52.8 and contrasted with a more downbeat picture for the smaller manufacturing sector last month. The PMI showed business expectations improved for a fifth straight month and optimism about business prospects was the highest since March last year. S&P Global's input price index showed growth in costs was the slowest since May 2021. Although still high by historical standards, that represented welcome news for the BoE which is worried about the persistence of the recent surge in inflation.
"Sterling markets will continue to digest yesterday’s Budget delivered by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt as well as the broader global environment. Markets remain ambivalent whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates next week," said Hann-Ju Ho, senior Economist, Commercial Banking at Lloyds Bank. The European Central Bank (ECB), meanwhile, is a little behind the BoE in its quest to fight inflation. Traders attach a 60% chance of the ECB raising rates by 50 bps on Thursday, with a 40% chance of 25 bps. Money markets show investors expect ECB rates to peak around 3% later this year, compared with a peak of 4% just over a week ago.
Uneasy calm descends after SVB-triggered turmoil
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The European Central Bank is still leaning towards a half-percentage-point rate hike on Thursday, despite turmoil in the banking sector, given high inflation, a source close to its Governing Council told Reuters. European stocks slipped 0.9% (.STOXX) in early trade but held above three-month lows reached on Monday as panic gripped world markets following SVB's collapse last week. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.9%, having slid 1.7% on Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei index was flat (.N225) while an index of Japanese banks, which has slid 8% this week, jumped over 3% (.IBNKS.T). There had been worries that stronger-than-expected data might lead the Fed to go for jumbo-sized hikes to battle inflation.
European markets are heading for a lukewarm open Wednesday, with European stocks expected to be in mixed territory. That comes despite buoyant trade in Asia-Pacific markets overnight and on Wall Street Tuesday, where U.S. bank stocks rebounded on optimism that the contagion risk from Silicon Valley Bank's collapse was contained. U.S. stock futures were flat early Wednesday morning. The U.K. is gearing up for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's "Spring Budget" today in which he's expected to announce key pension and child-care reforms as the country continues to battle a cost of living crisis.
LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Britain remains on track for a record fall in living standards over the two years to the end of March 2024, despite an upward revision to growth forecasts, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said on Wednesday. The OBR said real household disposable income per person was on course to fall by a cumulative 5.7% over 2022/23 and 2023/24, 1.4 percentage points less than it forecast in November but still the biggest two-year drop since records began in 1956/57. The fall mainly reflected the higher cost of energy and other goods imports, and living standards were still expected to be 0.4% below pre-pandemic levels in 2027/28, the OBR added in forecasts alongside finance minister Jeremy Hunt's annual budget. "Developments since our November forecast have been largely positive, but the economy still faces significant structural challenges," the OBR said. Reporting by David Milliken; editing by William James and Kate HoltonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Britain to announce energy security measures by month-end
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - British government measures to support energy security will be announced later in March, a budget document said on Wednesday without mention of any fresh incentives for oil and gas or renewable energy producers. "In addition to the measures in the spring budget, the government will set out further action later this month to ensure energy security in the UK and meet our net zero commitments," the government said in a budget document. "The Government has repeatedly ignored warnings from the renewable sector as it bulldozes through its tax raid on green electricity generators," said Rod Wood, managing director at wind energy developer Community Wind Power. "We are disappointed that it has not removed obstacles for offshore energy firms and the homegrown oil and gas producers." Reporting by Shadia Nasralla and Susanna Twidale Editing by David Goodman, Kirsten DonovanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
UK markets shrug off Hunt's budget; bank turmoil in focus
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - British markets, roiled by concerns about European banks after shares in Credit Suisse fell 30%, showed little reaction to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's budget on Wednesday. The pound picked up slightly against the euro as Hunt delivered the budget, in which he said Britain's official forecaster expected the economy to avoid recession this year. The euro fell to a session low of 87.25 pence as Hunt talked. However, the euro had already fallen sharply, with a big drop in European bank stocks spooking investors that were already on edge since the collapse of U.S. lender Silicon Valley Bank late last week. Britain's FTSE 100 (.FTSE) stock index was down 3.05%, with financial companies leading the falls.
[1/2] Fruit is displayed for sale on a stall in Lewisham Market, south east London, Britain, March 9, 2023. However, battery-powered electric bikes and home security cameras similar to Amazon's Ring video doorbells will join the index, the ONS said. Inflation is high on the public's agenda, after surging energy prices pushed CPI to a 41-year high of 11.1% in October. In future it will use an industry database with 30 million price points rather than an index calculated by a regulator. Leaving the index are cooking apples and super-king-size cigarettes - though other types of apple and cigarette will remain.
LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) - Markets were set for a bumpy ride this week as the fallout from collapsed startup-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the biggest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis, coincides with key economic data and policy meetings. It later recovered most of its losses after Circle, the firm behind it, assured investors it would honour the peg despite exposure to Silicon Valley Bank. SVB could have a domino effect on other U.S. regional banks and beyond. The S&P 500 regional banks index (.SPLRCBNKS) dropped 4.3%, bringing its loss for the week to 18%, its worst week since 2009. UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt's UK budget may be overshadowed by the SVB fallout in Britain.
UK banks (.FTNMX301010) dropped to an eight-week low, spooked by a brutal rout in U.S. bank SVB Financial (SIVB.O) following a share sale. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) slipped 1.9% to a five week low, while the more domestically focused mid-cap index (.FTMC) gave up 2.1% to hit a two-month low. The FTSE 100 is set to the end the week down about 2.8% in what could be its worst week since September, as worries around hawkish central banks sapped risk appetite. Next week, investors will be watching for UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's spring budget. Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza and Saumyadeb ChakrabartyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
And for financial markets it begs the question as to whether the extent of the monetary or fiscal tightening currently assumed will ever actually happen. The OBR reckons UK consumer price inflation has now peaked and will back off to a full-year rate of 7.4% next year. But assuming standing market forecasts for energy prices and BoE rates, it then sees inflation fall below zero for eight quarters from the middle of 2024. The BoE also expects headline inflation to plummet into 2024 - and its 'fan chart' of the range of possible outcomes also has an outside chance of deflation then too. Delaying spending cuts until after an election won't help much in that regard if indeed they're seen necessary at all.
Morning Bid: Bear Hunt
  + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Long-term sovereign bond yields have been falling sharply all week in advance of finance minister Jeremy Hunt's new budget, dragged down largely by U.S. disinflation hopes. UK 10- and 30-year gilt yields outperformed, however, dropping to their lowest since early September before backing up slightly on Thursday. U.S. housing starts numbers out later will give another glimpse at the state of the ailing property sector. Reverberations continued around the world from this month's latest implosion in the crypto universe and the failure of the FTX exchange. Major crypto player Genesis Global Capital suspended customer redemptions in its lending business on Wednesday, citing the FTX collapse.
LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The pound rose for a third day against the dollar on Thursday ahead of finance minister Jeremy Hunt's new budget full of "tough but necessary" measures to control inflation. Against the euro , sterling has only risen by around 6% since late September and by 9% against the yen. Benchmark 10-year gilts are around 3.3%, their lowest since mid-September, just before Truss and Kwarteng released their budget. Typically, this would have dragged on the pound, given the lower yield advantage it affords investments in sterling. Adding an extra element of risk on Thursday, are the economic forecasts of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, which did not release any kind of breakdown of the impact of Truss' budget in September.
Bank of England chief questions government's veto power plan
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
[1/2] Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey attends the Monetary Policy Report News Conference at The Bank of England, in London, Britain November 3, 2022. REUTERS/Toby Melville/PoolLONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey took the British government to task on Wednesday over its plan to give itself veto powers over post-Brexit financial rules written by independent regulators, including the central bank. The BoE has warned against easing the rules too much as insurers appeal to the ministry to override the central bank. City minister Andrew Griffith has said a veto would be used sparingly, with regulators continuing to enjoy day-to-day operational independence. The veto would be additional to a new remit in a draft law before parliament for regulators to heed the City's global competitiveness when writing new rules.
Morning Bid: A missile and a manifesto
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur BanerjeeU.S President Joe Biden said a missile that killed two people in Poland may not have been fired from Russia. Meanwhile, Donald Trump launched a bid to regain the presidency in 2024, a move that was widely expected and telegraphed. "Two years ago, we were a great nation and soon we will be a great nation again," he said in a speech that lasted little more than an hour. Britain is due on Wednesday to release inflation data for October that is expected to show consumer prices up 10.7% on a year earlier. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that lender BlockFi was planning layoffs and a possible bankruptcy filing.
LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - If financial markets bore the brunt of this year's interest rate shock, housing now stands in the firing line. With long-term U.S. fixed mortgage rates above 7% for the first time in 20 years, and more than double January rates, U.S. housing sales and starts are already feeling the heat. "We see a relatively greater risk of a meaningful rise in mortgage delinquency rates in the UK," Goldman said this month. While Australia and New Zealand have higher variable mortgage rates, British mortgage holders also have a higher vulnerability to rising joblessness. All of which bodes ill for UK house prices - although forecasts are still far from apocalyptic.
REUTERS/Maja SmiejkowskaLONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Britain's banks are proactively helping customers hit by the cost of living crisis, but implementing a new "consumer duty" on time could exclude vulnerable consumers from help, banking industry body UK Finance said on Wednesday. UK Finance chief executive David Postings said portfolios of lenders have so far stood up to current economic stresses. It is more critical than ever that borrowers and savers are offered fair and competitive rates, Rathi added. UK Finance chair Bob Wigley said he anticipated that finance minister Jeremy Hunt's fiscal statement on Thursday would help restore Britain's "traditional reputation for sound management of public finances" after turmoil in UK bond markets in September. Banks hope Hunt will announce a cut in the tax surcharge on their profits.
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